The President’s State Leadership Missing!... At That Moment, He Was Not in Korea

[Choice Times=Sung-Min Jang, People Power Party Ansan-gap Party Committee Chairman (Former Presidential Office Senior Secretary for Future Strategy Planning)]

A massive tsunami originating from the Middle East is now approaching South Korea. If this tsunami is not managed properly, it could become a national disaster and lead directly to the so-called “Korea discount.” In particular, it could become a catastrophic event that collapses the embankments protecting our economic security.

Yet in this extraordinary moment of crisis, the president’s state leadership has gone missing.

The president, the supreme authority responsible for commanding the emergency powers of economic security and overseeing the response to looming large-scale risks, was not in Korea.

I had strongly argued that in such an emergency situation—foreseeing the signs of an imminent crisis in which a Middle East war could bring major negative consequences to our economic security—the president should not embark on a Southeast Asian tour. But he ultimately turned a deaf ear and departed anyway.

While doing so, the president declared that he “opposes the war,” effectively confronting our ally, the United States. At the same time as his remarks, North Korea, China, and Russia simultaneously criticized the United States. I believed that leaving for overseas diplomacy while an ally is at war runs counter to both the spirit of alliance and the sense of solidarity expected between allies.

More importantly, I warned that if the war with Iran escalates, the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 70% of our imported crude oil passes—could be blocked. If oil imports were cut off, energy prices and overall inflation could skyrocket overnight, potentially sending the economy into a sudden collapse.

I also emphasized that an escalation of the Middle East war could lead to the redeployment and mobilization of U.S. Forces Korea, resulting in a serious security vacuum on the Korean Peninsula. Therefore, in such a national emergency, the president should refrain from overseas travel and diplomacy as much as possible.

But he ignored these warnings. Instead, he told the people to “enjoy themselves.”

At that moment, I found it strange that he said the prime minister would handle the core functions of state affairs and that the people should simply relax and enjoy their daily lives. Frankly speaking, I thought his mental state was abnormal.

Is it truly normal for a leader, facing a looming national crisis, to tell his citizens to simply enjoy themselves?

Unfortunately, the Middle East war is dragging on just as I had predicted, and now two major threats that could become disasters for our economic security—the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the potential participation of U.S. Forces Korea in the Iran war—are beginning to emerge.

On the 2nd, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that “not a single drop of oil will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.” If the Strait were actually blocked, not only the Korean economy but the global economy would be shaken.

The Strait of Hormuz is a route responsible for about 20% of global seaborne oil shipments. If this route is blocked, international oil prices would surge. A reduction in tanker operations is already having an immediate impact on energy markets. Since the outbreak of the war, international oil prices have risen about 12%, trading around $80 per barrel, while natural gas prices in Europe and Asia are also rising.

Asian countries such as South Korea, Japan, and China—highly dependent on Middle Eastern energy—have now entered an emergency state regarding energy supply. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), more than 80% of the oil and gas transported through the strait in 2024 was destined for China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

South Korea and Japan are considered particularly vulnerable to a blockade because they rely heavily on Middle Eastern energy and have limited domestic energy production. South Korea depends on the Middle East for about 70% of its oil imports, while Japan relies on it for more than 90%.

Countries may absorb short-term shocks through strategic petroleum reserves, but if the blockade of the strait becomes prolonged, rising energy prices and supply instability could spread across the global economy. A surge in oil prices would lead to a surge in inflation, potentially pushing the world economy toward a great depression.

South Korea and Japan, which import nearly 100% of their crude oil, would suffer severe damage, and China would also struggle with an energy shortage. There are growing concerns that supertankers worth over $100 million could be sunk in the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps because of this, almost all oil tankers have disappeared from the area. Shipping companies have entered a state of extreme alert, and oil production has already been reduced by 20%. International oil prices have already risen by about 10%. In Japan, a surge in prices has been forecast. South Korea cannot be an exception.

At one point, the Korean won–dollar exchange rate exceeded 1,500, and the KOSPI index has been fluctuating like a roller coaster. The instability resembles a wingless plunge with wide swings in volatility.

Global investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that if the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues for one month, European natural gas prices—currently below $20 per MMBtu—could rise to around $25, and if it continues for more than two months, they could surge to $35.

Following the attack on Qatar, natural gas prices have already skyrocketed by 68%. South Korea also imports liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar.

Yet amid this economic emergency, the president’s leadership was engaged in overseas diplomacy.

Another worrying issue is now being discussed if the Iran war escalates: the possibility of U.S. Forces Korea participating in the conflict. This was reportedly discussed during a phone call between our defense minister and U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Colby.

The United States likely hoped to draw on U.S. Forces Korea, while our defense minister likely expressed reservations. Frankly speaking, would communication even work? This is the same defense minister who once made a “protest call” to U.S. forces conducting aerial exercises over the West Sea.

I had already foreseen this issue and warned that if such a situation occurred, the absence of the commander-in-chief could lead to a security vacuum. Yet despite these critical warnings, the president boldly proceeded with overseas diplomacy, further deepening concerns about instability in national governance.

If he failed to foresee that the Middle East war could be linked to security on the Korean Peninsula, then he is unqualified to serve as the supreme commander of the military. We are an ally of the United States, and the U.S. military is currently at war with Iran. The U.S. forces stationed on the Korean Peninsula could naturally be deployed to that war. This is a foreseeable security variable.

Under such circumstances, who would recognize a president who left for overseas diplomacy in Southeast Asia as the supreme commander of the armed forces?

One thing confirmed through this Middle East war is that President Lee Jae-myung’s leadership of state affairs is zero.

It was abnormal for a man with four criminal convictions to run for president. If it was abnormal for him to be elected, then leaving for overseas diplomacy while an ally is at war was also abnormal behavior for the nation’s highest leader.

At present, the leadership protecting South Korea’s economic security has collapsed to the ground. Is this truly a country? In a normal democratic nation, a president who closes his eyes to a national economic security crisis would be grounds for impeachment by the people.